Yes, solar can still stack up — but the rate drop is real, and it does change the maths. Octopus Energy cut its headline Outgoing Octopus rate from 15p to 12p per kWh on 1 March 2026, the first time the smart export guarantee rate had moved since 2022, and several installer-tied introductory deals have quietly been closed or tightened. If you were relying on a juicy export payment to make the numbers work, it is worth revisiting how much export income actually contributes to payback — because for most homes, the honest answer is: less than you might think.
Have smart export guarantee rates actually fallen in 2026?
Yes — and the headline cut is confirmed. Octopus cut its Outgoing Octopus fixed rate from 15p to 12p per kWh on 1 March 2026, the first change to that rate since 2022. The Intelligent Octopus Flux tariff — which had offered peak export rates above 20p — was closed to new customers in April 2026. Other suppliers have followed similar patterns: premium introductory rates are increasingly tied to installer deals or import-switching requirements, and the market has stratified into two tiers.
The first tier: rates of 12–15p per kWh for customers willing to switch their electricity import to the same supplier. The second tier: open export-only tariffs (where you don't need to move your import) sitting at around 4–5p per kWh. If you are on an existing deal or haven't shopped around, there is a real chance you are in that second tier without realising it. Our guide to the best Smart Export Guarantee rates in the UK for 2026 keeps a current comparison of what's actually on offer.
How much does the export rate actually affect solar payback?
Less than most people assume — and this is the most important thing to understand. The reason is straightforward: every unit of solar electricity you use yourself is worth considerably more than every unit you export.
According to Ofgem's published price cap rates, the standard electricity unit rate from 1 October 2026 is 26.32p per kWh. A unit of solar power you use directly saves you 26p. The same unit exported at the best open fixed rate gets you around 12p — less than half as much.
That gap is the whole story. The financial case for solar rests overwhelmingly on self-consumption — using the electricity your panels generate rather than importing it from the grid. Export income is a welcome bonus, but it is the secondary lever, not the primary one.
To put some rough numbers on it, consider a typical 4kW system generating around 3,400–3,800 kWh per year in the UK. Without a battery, a home with average daytime usage might self-consume around 35–45% of that generation — say 1,300–1,700 kWh used directly, displacing grid imports at 26p per kWh. That self-consumption saving alone could be worth around £340–£445 per year in avoided bills (a worked illustration only — your actual figure depends on your usage pattern, tariff, and roof). The remaining 55–65% exported at 12p adds perhaps £220–£300 on top. The export income matters, but it is not the foundation.
Is solar still worth it now that SEG rates have dropped?
For most homes with a reasonable roof and decent daytime electricity use, yes — but only if you go in with the right expectations. The Octopus rate cut from 15p to 12p costs a typical household perhaps £40–£70 per year in export income compared with last year. That is real money, but it does not fundamentally change a 10–15 year payback calculation. What does change it is self-consumption.
Homes that export a large share of their generation — because nobody is in during the day and there is no battery — feel the rate drop more acutely, because export income makes up a bigger slice of their total return. If you are out all day and your system sits mostly idle in terms of in-home use, a falling export rate matters more to you than it does to a home worker or a household with an EV.
Homes where solar probably still stacks up well despite the rate drop:
- Someone at home during the day (retired, home worker, carer)
- A household with an EV or electric heating that can soak up midday generation
- Anyone who can add — or already has — a battery to store daytime surplus for evening use
- Higher electricity users, whose bills give solar more to cut
Homes where the case is weaker: low electricity users, properties with heavy shade or a north-facing roof, and anyone planning to move within five to seven years. Being honest about this is important — solar is not right for everyone, and a good installer should tell you that upfront.
What actually matters more than the export rate: self-consumption
Without a battery, typical UK solar homes self-consume around 30–45% of what their panels generate, exporting the rest. Add a battery, and that figure typically rises to 60–80%. The difference is significant: a 4kW system with a battery storing evening surplus can shift a substantial chunk of export income into higher-value self-consumption, more than compensating for a 3p cut in the export rate.
That said, batteries are not cheap. A home battery typically adds £3,500–£7,000 to the upfront cost of a system, and the payback on the battery itself needs separate consideration. Our guide on whether solar battery storage is actually worth it walks through the numbers honestly — including the cases where it is not.
There are cheaper ways to shift self-consumption before you commit to battery storage. A solar diverter (sometimes called an immersion controller) redirects surplus solar to your hot water cylinder, effectively storing energy as hot water for a few hundred pounds rather than several thousand. Running dishwashers, washing machines, and EV chargers during peak generation hours also makes a meaningful difference, and costs nothing.
What to ask about SEG before you sign anything
The SEG landscape is genuinely confusing right now, and some installers oversell export income in their quote illustrations. Here are the questions worth asking:
- What export rate have you used in this payback calculation, and which supplier offers it? If it is above 12p flat with no import-switching requirement, ask them to explain exactly how you would qualify.
- Is this tariff open to new customers today? Several headline rates exist only for existing customers of a particular supplier, or have been quietly closed. The SEG market moves fast.
- What is the payback time if I get 4–5p per kWh for export, not 15p? Run the worst-case number and see if the system still makes sense. If it only works with a premium export rate, that is a red flag.
- Is my system MCS-certified? SEG payments require an MCS certificate — without it, no supplier is obliged to pay you at all. Only use an MCS-certified installer. You can check the register at mcscertified.com.
- Do I need to switch my electricity import to get a good export rate? The best bundled rates often require it. That can be worth doing, but make sure the import tariff is also competitive before you commit.
It is also worth knowing that your SEG supplier does not have to be the same as your electricity import supplier — you can mix and match. That flexibility means you can keep a competitive import deal and still access a reasonable export rate from a different provider.
The 0% VAT relief still in play — use it before March 2027
One factor that does not get enough attention alongside the SEG debate: solar installations currently qualify for 0% VAT, saving homeowners around £600–£1,200 on a typical system compared with the standard 20% rate. That relief is legislated through March 2027. Whatever happens to export rates, that upfront saving directly improves the payback calculation. Our guide to 0% VAT on solar panels and the March 2027 deadline covers what you need to do before that window closes.
The honest verdict
The smart export guarantee rate drop is real, and it is right to factor it in. But the 3p cut from Octopus is not what determines whether solar is worth it for your home — your self-consumption is. A system sized and installed well for your household's usage pattern, by a vetted MCS-certified installer, with a realistic payback calculation that doesn't depend on premium export rates, can still deliver a solid return over its 25-year lifespan.
The risk is not the rate drop itself. The risk is buying a system on the back of an inflated export income projection, then finding the deal has changed by the time you're installed. Ask the hard questions before you sign — or let free quotes from multiple installers give you competing projections so you can spot the outliers yourself.
If you want to see what local, vetted MCS-certified installers quote for a system sized to your home and usage, you can get free, no-obligation quotes through FairSolar. No pushy sales calls — just honest figures from installers who have been checked. FairSolar is free for homeowners; you can see how the service is funded here.
Frequently asked questions
Have solar export rates gone down in 2026?
Yes. Octopus Energy cut its Outgoing Octopus fixed export rate from 15p to 12p per kWh on 1 March 2026 — its first change since 2022. Several premium introductory tariffs have also been closed to new customers or tied to installer deals, making the open market for export rates noticeably tighter than in 2025.
Is solar still worth it now that SEG rates have dropped?
For most homes with decent daytime electricity use and a south or south-west facing roof, yes. The 3p rate cut costs a typical household around £40–£70 per year in lost export income — meaningful but not decisive. The bigger lever is self-consumption: every unit you use directly saves you around 26p (the current Ofgem cap rate), versus 12p or less for export. A system with realistic self-consumption figures can still pay back well within its 25-year lifespan.
How much does the SEG export rate actually affect my payback?
Less than most people expect, because export income is the smaller part of the financial return for most homes. Self-consumed solar — electricity you use directly rather than buying from the grid — is worth roughly twice as much per unit as exported electricity at current rates. If your quote projections are heavily weighted towards export income, ask the installer to re-run them at 4–5p per kWh (the fallback open rate) and see how the payback changes.
Can I switch my SEG supplier without changing my electricity import supplier?
Yes. Your SEG export supplier does not have to be the same company you buy your electricity from — they are completely separate contracts. This means you can keep a competitive import tariff and independently shop for the best export rate. The catch is that the best export rates (above 12p flat) often do require you to switch your import supplier too, so weigh up whether the overall package is better.
Do I need to be with Octopus Energy to get a good SEG rate?
No — though Octopus has historically offered strong rates. As of late 2026, several suppliers including Good Energy and EDF offer competitive rates for their import customers, and rates above 12p tend to come with an import-switching requirement regardless of which supplier offers them. Always check that the tariff you are quoted is actually open to new customers before factoring it into your payback calculation.